Russian President, Vladimir Putin, views the expansion of membership as a signal of the ‘betrayal’ of the countries that won the Cold War against Russia, which does not want the expansion of NATO post-Cold War.
“Currently, NATO’s actions to expand its membership to the east threatens Ukraine’s position as the ‘last fortress’ for Russia. If Ukraine joins NATO, the borders between Russia and NATO will coincide,” Muhadi explained.
Muhadi suspects that Russia is currently experiencing anxiety over the prospect of losing buffer zones that can support its security, especially Ukraine. Today, Russia is demanding something that has long been ‘on its claim’. “The Ukraine issue has even become a ‘life and death’ for Russia’s security and geopolitics. And in desperation, it is feared that Russia could make nuclear weapons an option, whether forced or not.” Muhadi said.
It is suspected that this crisis will become more complex if the United States, Europe, and NATO continue to use the paradigm of ‘punish Russia’ through strict sanctions to provoke a change in Russia’s attitudes and policies. Efforts to condemn and punish Russia will not be able to resolve the conflict if the sources of Russia’s concerns about the expansion of NATO are not listened to. However, Muhadi said, negotiations still promise a way out.
“The door to negotiations should be opened as wide as possible so that the United States and Western countries can understand what Putin’s needs are. Without negotiation, the result will be fatal,” Muhadi said.
Furthermore, one of the implications of Russia’s aggressive strategy is the disruption of the stability of the international system. As for Indonesia, the impact of this conflict will not occur directly because Indonesia’s involvement tends to be minimal. However, this year Indonesia will become the G20 Presidency—where Russia, the European Union and the United States will meet.