Analyzing the 2019 Election and Its Implication to the Future

Yogyakarta, October 19th 2022─The Department of Politics and Governance (DPP) Fisipol UGM collaborated with the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (ISEAS) in holding a Book Discussion of The Jokowi-Prabowo Election 2.0 on Wednesday (19/10) which was held through a hybrid scheme in the East Seminar room of Fisipol UGM. This event invited speakers that were also the editors and writers of the book such as Made Supriatma, Max Lane, and Budi Irwanto. The talk was also moderated by Amalinda Savirani, a lecturer in DPP Fisipol UGM. 

Made Supriatma opened the discussion by briefly explaining the content of the book and elaborating his interpretation of how the 2019 election went as well as its implication. “We can see in a comparative lens the 2014 and 2019 elections. The contestation is almost similar, but the coalition and the dynamics are different,” Made said.

According to Made, the 2019 election showed that identity-based division is even more apparent in Indonesian politics. Moreover, the role of cyber politics escalated with the increasing use of social media and the internet in our society. This makes political debates go into private spaces. However, that doesn’t signify rational voters.

Unlike Made who said that there was political polarization in the 2019 election, Maz Lane said that the polarization was simply a tactic from both parties to gain votes. “There were no substantive differences in terms of the political economy policies proposed by both parties,” Lane said. The assumption was even stronger when Prabowo easily went into the Jokowi government. “If there was a sharp difference between the development policies of both parties, this couldn’t have happened,” Lane said.

Furthermore, Lane said that the 2019 election showed the existence of absolutism in mainstream political life that only represents one class. This is shown through the similarity between each party’s substance, “It shows that only one class, which is the elites, can play in politics.” Lane said. This is shown by the absence of parties from the grassroots. Additionally, Lane said that there are no parties that acted as the opposition. The opposition can be seen in the movements of civil society. 

Budi Irwanto added to the discussion by elaborating on his findings of the 2019 election in Central Java. Central Java is an interesting place because it is one of the regions that determined the win of Jokowi-Ma’ruf in the 2019 election. Even though the Prabowo-Sandi party intervened in politics through their identity-based politics, the win was still on Jokowi’s side in Central Java. “It turns out that Jokowi’s figure as the “normal people” is held dearly by the people there and resonated more compared to Prabowo’s figure from Jakarta,” Budi said.

Budi closed his elaboration with a question left to answer, which is will identity politics continue to exist in the 2024 election? Can voters see the personal aspect of the presidential candidates more than the vision and mission of their political parties?